A mere 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his displays were a sign or a cause for the team's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. As Rogers drilled in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard proposition to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant this season, while the positive results have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the team had an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a club who have strung together 10 in a row, they look weirdly vulnerable – but currently the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their talisman to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired in London, and again versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, bent right inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents had more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival Villa have to face in the near future. The forward, surely, cannot keep on blasting the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the performer he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a title charge while looking like a vital player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
